Prediction of Waste Generation and Disposal Using System Dynamics Modeling

Abstract

Solid waste management plays an important role in protecting the environment, the health system and minimizing biological threats, so serious actions need to be taken to control and manage these threats on the environment. Different situations such as seasonal changes and cities policies have had effects on solid waste generation and disposal behaviors, therefore the proper prediction of the amount of waste disposal is needed to improve the waste management system. In this thesis, the system dynamics (SD) model is used to predict the amount of waste generation and disposal in Canada. Different types of wastes are considered in the SD model. Gross domestic product (GDP) and population are the socio-economic variables that have a significant effect on the amount of waste generation and disposal in the SD model. The developed model can show the relationship between variables to predict the amount of waste generation and disposal, so by using the SD model with a better attitude, governments and organizations can make decisions to design an appropriate model for waste management and apply it in the system. In this thesis, the most significant contribution is using effective variables such as GDP, population, and education to predict the amount of waste generation and disposal seasonally and yearly. The results show that the increasing and decreasing trends in the amount of waste disposal from the prediction value depend on the variables in the model. Population and GDP are the main effective variables in the SD model, in which waste disposal will increase in the future as the population increases. Therefore, by the effect of various policies and conditions, there will be different trends in waste management.