Meteorological risk assessment of Canadian transcontinental freight railway: Case study of Saskatchewan and Ontario

Abstract

Railway transportation is the heart of the supply chain in Canada. The reason is that railway transportation is known as one of the most reliable and safest modes of transportation. However, due to its complexity, a wide range of risks are associated with this means of transportation. Considering Canada's climate, studying meteorological risks associated with the railway network can be useful for decision-makers in railway transportation, especially when preparing for cold seasons and implementing railway network development. In this study, a comprehensive spatial analysis using ArcMap has been applied to identify hotspots and vulnerable geographical areas in terms of meteorological factors in two provinces with slightly different climates: Saskatchewan and Ontario. Floods, rain, snow, minimum temperature, and wind have been selected as factors to generate meteorological risk maps for the mentioned provinces. The selected railway network for analysis is the Canadian National Railway (CN), one of the two major railways in Canada and the only Transcontinental Freight Railway in North America. However, the results can be applied to any other railway network in Canada. After developing risk maps for each factor, 5 different types of integrated risk maps are generated in this thesis. The first type assumes that the weight (importance) of all factors in causing accidents or service disruptions is the same. Two versions utilize different weights for different factors. One version applies score-based weighting of factors, while the other employs expert opinion-based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Additionally, two season-based risk maps for warm and cold seasons are also generated. The risk maps demonstrate hotspots and hazardous areas that require more attention and planning to maintain the continuity of the supply chain. The results can be used to enhance safety, reduce service disruptions, and ensure the smooth operation of the railway network.