Development of Failure and Consequence Analysis Frameworks for Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline

Abstract

In our daily activities, natural gas is an essential part for cooking, heating, electricity production as well as manufacturing activities. In last two decades, the natural gas consumption rate has been increasing exponentially in every corner of the world. Subsequently, any natural gas pipeline failure can lead human fatalities, financial losses, and interruption of manufacturing activities as well as environmental impact. To overcome this situation or reduce the losses, a risk analysis method can play a very significant role the potential threats. The main objective of this research is to identify the natural gas pipeline failure causes, influences and consequences analysis to improve the public life safety, security and to reduce the potential environmental hazards. In first part of this study, a Rough Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Rough Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) are integrated to analyze the failure causes and influences of natural gas transmission pipeline. After that, to identify the consequence of the natural gas transmission pipeline failure, the potential threat zone simulation is performed using ALOHA software and a BBN-based consequence model is developed. The outcome of this thesis will help the energy provider and government agency to take necessary safety precaution plan as well as forecast the crisis management budget.