Saskatchewan Electrical Power Systems Planning under Stochastic Conditions and Federal Climate Change Regulations

Abstract

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from industrial activities are the key drivers of climate change impacts in many regions around the world. In 2012, Environment Canada and Climate Change published its first GHG emissions performance standards, the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of Electricity Regulations, to set up the performance standards for coal-fired generation units to reduce GHG emissions in Canada. Saskatchewan is concerned about the impact of the published regulations on future electricity generation system planning and GHG. Specifically, the regulations result in a shift from existing coal-fired generation units towards other high efficient power generation units or carbon capture and storage technologies. In this research, chance-constrained programming (CCP) and fractional programming (FP) approaches have been applied to provide recommendations and options for Saskatchewan’s power system optimization, GHG emissions reduction planning, and risk analysis under the Canada Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of Electricity Regulations. A number of policy and decision options for Saskatchewan’s power system have been obtained from three designed scenarios, which are based on comprehensive consideration of the GHG emission targets, social impacts, and regional economic and environmental impacts. More importantly, multi-layer interrelationships among multiple electrical system components have been examined in this research.