A study of factors influencing cyberattacks

Abstract

There has been a substantial global cyberattack evolution and Internet Use revolution during the current Coronavirus pandemic, consequently forcing countries across the globe to begin reviewing their national cybersecurity strategies. However, to adequately minimize the risks of future attacks and associated losses, new and/or contemporary cyberattack studies are required, particularly at the country level. This research examines the chances of attack initiation, during the present Coronavirus pandemic, indicated in this study by Country-Level Cyberattacks (CLCA) and how it is affected by Country-Level Internet Use (CLIU), a technological Country-Level Influential Factor (CLIF). It presents a quantitative, nonexperimental, correlational approach that examines CLIU and CLCA indexes. Three omnibus research questions are raised to quantify and evaluate how International Internet Users (IIU), International Internet Subscriptions (IIS), and International Internet Bandwidth (IIB), as predictor variables, individually correlates with International Source Addresses (ISA). Corresponding datasets from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), International Telecommunication Union (ITU), and the Hornet Honeypot Project (HHP) are analyzed using correlational tests and regression models, and interpretation and inferences are drawn, using a measure of association and the frequentist methods. In line with existing studies, data analysis results show a strong positive correlation and predictive power between CLIU and CLCA indexes (R2(%) > 50) suggesting that countries having higher CLIU are more likely to have higher chances of attack initiation or attacker infestation. Contrary to existing studies, the IIB (R2(%) > 70) is found to very strongly influence a CLCA more than the IIU and IIS. Hence, relevant digital-capacity indexes are stronger than others, indicating a more decisive influence of particular indexes on the relationship between CLIU and CLCA. Additionally, the BRIC economic countries are observed to be true outliers with China having significant eccentricities. China’s IIU, IIB, and IIS-related chances of attack originations or attacker infestation compared to other countries are about 32, 32, and 43 Average Euclidean Distance (AED) units apart respectively, suggesting that China is a peculiar country that demonstrates a rare combination of CLIF hardly found in many countries and therefore, should be given special policy considerations. The findings in this study provide new insight on how CLIU interrelates with CLCA during the present Coronavirus pandemic and therefore have significant implications for research and practice. To cybersecurity researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and equipment manufacturers, this present study can help in identifying where to anticipate a higher density of attack initiations during the current pandemic. It can help them in developing models that can predict or track countries having high chances of attack initiations and attacker infestations, which is useful in many areas, such as in development of intelligent security fences and building of well-informed cybersecurity policies, strategies and bilateral agreements. Cybersecurity researchers can use this study as a related literature and a basis for future works.