Economics Faculty

Permanent URI for this communityhttps://hdl.handle.net/10294/5530

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Open Access
Any Risk Is Unacceptable
(Canadian Plains Research Center, 2010-10) Arbuthnott, Katherine; Dolter, Brett
In the spring and summer of 2009 the Saskatchewan provincial government held a consultation process to elicit citizen views on expanding the nuclear industry (UDP 2009). Thousands of citizens participated in the consultation process, and an overwhelming majority of participants opposed the expansion of the nuclear industry (Perrins 2009). We used qualitative methods to study stakeholder submissions to the Saskatchewan consultation process. We wanted to understand why the majority of citizens opposed the expansion of the nuclear industry, and why the government, the nuclear industry, and some citizens supported nuclear expansion. Our results suggest that those who oppose nuclear power do so primarily because they possess different cultural identities and value priorities than those who support nuclear power. Our findings offer insight into the academic literature around risk perception, environmental conflict, and environmental values.
Open Access
Is All Bullying the Same?
(Archives of Public Health, 2014) Zhang, Lihui; Osberg, Lars; Phipps, Shelley
We ask whether verbal abuse, threats of violence and physical assault among Canadian youth have the same determinants and whether these determinants are the same for boys and girls. If these are different, the catch-all term “bullying” may mis-specify analysis of what are really different types of behavior
Open Access
Regina’s 100% Renewable Energy Target: Survey Results Measuring Support for the Target and Related Actions
(Regina Energy Futures Project, 2020-09) Bardutz, Emily; Dolter, Brett
Open Access
Greening the Saskatchewan grid: A case study in deliberative energy modelling
(Elsevier, 2021-01-29) Dolter, Brett
This paper presents a case study of deliberative energy modelling focused on the future of electricity in Saskatchewan, Canada. Participants included representatives from the provincial electricity utility and from environmental organizations. These diverse social actors participated in defining the desired scope and output of the model, providing data and insights that were incorporated into the model, and conducting extended peer review of modelling assumptions and design. Participants then attended a face-to-face workshop to co-create scenarios for Saskatchewan's electricity future using an interactive version of the electricity futures model. The interactive model served as a platform for discussing the social, environmental, and economic impacts of competing scenarios. Post-workshop analysis indicates that the deliberative energy modelling process contributed to participant learning, increased trust and communication amongst participants, reinforced the idea that wind energy could play a greater role in the Saskatchewan electricity system, and contributed to an increased focus on deliberative engagement at the Saskatchewan electricity utility SaskPower. The process did not, however, lead to consensus on the proportion of electricity that could be provided by renewable energy in Saskatchewan.
Open Access
The cost effectiveness of new reservoir hydroelectricity: British Columbia’s Site C project
(Elsevier, 2022-09) Dolter, Brett; Fellows, G. Kent; Rivers, Nicholas
Large-scale, reservoir hydroelectric facilities can play an important role in decarbonizing the electricity sector. However, new hydroelectric facilities are costly, and several recent projects in Canada have been subject to cost over-runs. In this paper, we develop a methodology for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of new reservoir hydroelectric projects. We apply this methodology to a case study of the Site C hydroelectric project currently under construction in British Columbia, Canada. Our approach makes use of a purpose-built linear programming capacity expansion and dispatch model, resolved at an hourly frequency and incorporating detailed treatment of balancing area requirements, available wind and solar resources, watershed constraints on hydroelectric potential, and endogenous electricity trade. Our simulations reveal that the value of the Site C project is unlikely to exceed its total cost, and only exceeds the avoidable cost of project cancellation in scenarios where BC and Alberta build additional inter-provincial transmission capacity and aim for 100% decarbonization of their electricity systems. Site C provides a cautionary tale for policymakers and planners pursuing large hydro-electric projects. Potential cost over-runs can render large hydroelectric projects uneconomic relative to alternatives. The decision to complete the Site C project is only justified by its high sunk costs.
Open Access
Carbon Pricing Costs for Households and the Progressivity of Revenue Recycling Options in Canada
(University of Toronto Press Inc. (UTPress), 2023-03-01) Jennifer Winter; Brett Dolter; G. Kent Fellows
Canadian federal policy mandates a floor price on greenhouse gas emissions in all provinces and territories or an equivalent quantity instrument. Provinces that implement a system consistent with the federal benchmark maintain control of revenues. Provinces that do not implement a carbon price are subject to a federally administered pricing system, with revenue recycling via lump-sum household rebates. Using rich synthetic household microdata, we quantify the direct and indirect tax burden on households and carbon pricing revenues in each province. We also calculate carbon pricing revenue available to each province. Using these data, we measure the net cost to households and the overall progressivity of carbon pricing under four revenue recycling scenarios: (a) a means-tested sales tax credit increase, (b) a lump-sum dividend, (c) a sales tax rate reduction, and (d) a personal income tax basic exemption increase. We find that the carbon tax is generally progressive even without revenue recycling, the sales tax credit and lump-sum rebate are progressive, the sales tax rate reduction is mostly regressive, and the income tax change is regressive. We also show that Canada’s outputbased pricing system for large emitters helps to mitigate indirect carbon pricing costs with a notable effect in reducing household costs.
Open Access
Oil and Non-Oil Determinants of Saudi Arabia’s International Competitiveness: Historical Analysis and Policy Simulations
(MDPI, 2023-06-02) Hasanov, Fakhri J.; Razek, Noha
To achieve sustainable economic growth, Saudi Vision 2030’s target is to improve Saudi Arabia’s ranking on the Global Competitiveness Index from 25 in 2015–2016 to within the top 10 by 2030. Saudi Arabia also aims to increase the share of non-oil exports in the non-oil GDP from 16% in 2016 to 50% by 2030. For policymakers to make informed decisions to achieve these goals, they need to understand the driving forces of Saudi Arabia’s competitiveness. To this end, we consider the real effective exchange rate (REER) as a measure of external price competitiveness, as it captures domestic and global price changes. We then examine the REER using a two-stage modeling framework. First, we estimate the REER equation, which allows us to assess the impacts of the determinants and evaluate currency misalignments as a competitiveness indicator. Second, we extend the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM) with the estimated equation, which provides a framework for simulating the competitiveness impacts of the theoretically formulated determinants and other variables relevant to policymakers. The framework also allows us to account for feedback loops. We conduct a policy scenario analysis to quantify the competitiveness effects of the Public Investment Fund’s (PIF) new strategy for 2021–2025. We derive the following policy insights. Authorities may wish to implement initiatives boosting future productivity and, thus, competitiveness, such as PIF investments. Policymakers should be regularly informed about currency misalignment. Government consumption and public investment projects should consider substituting imports with locally produced goods and services. Local content development would also help to diversify the Saudi economy. Finally, attracting more foreign investment and other assets from the rest of the world may lead to technological development and improvement in the economic, financial, and social infrastructure and business environment, all enhancing competitiveness.
Open Access
When the Sun Sets on Net Metering: How the Cancellation of Net Metering Impacted the Potential Adoption of Residential Rooftop Solar Photovoltaics in Regina, Saskatchewan
(Librello, 2023-08-17) Brett Dolter; Madeleine Seatle; Madeleine McPherson
Rooftop solar photovoltaics will play a role in decarbonizing electricity generation and meeting global climate goals. Policymakers can benefit from understanding how their policy choices impact rooftop solar PV adoption. We conduct a case study of Regina, Saskatchewan to determine the extent to which solar policy changes in that Canadian province have impacted the relative desirability of rooftop solar PV. We assess financial returns that can be achieved in Regina under three policy scenarios: net metering, net billing, and net billing with a capital incentive. We use GIS analysis to identify suitable roofs in Regina and assess any shading that may occur. We calculate hourly capacity factors for these roofs using solar irradiation data, temperature data, and shading factors. We match the simulated solar output results with hourly load data to simulate over 4 million potential roof-load combinations and calculate NPV and net monthly return for each combination. We conduct a telephone survey of 451 Regina residents to assess willingness to install solar at different levels of financial return and compare these results to our solar simulations. Our results indicate that a move from net metering to net billing reduced financial returns from rooftop solar and lowered solar potential from 129 Gigawatt-hours (GWh) per year to 99 GWh/yr in Regina. The introduction of a capital incentive grant by the federal government has helped increase solar potential upwards to 120 GWh/yr. The capital incentive grant may also help overcome high discount rates by providing a larger upfront benefit to households that install solar.
Open Access
Dimensions of competition in urban cannabis markets
(Wiley, 2023-09) Jason Childs; Calum MacDonald
AbstractWe report the results of a survey of legal cannabis retail operators in the two largest urban centres of a Canadian province that uses a fully private model to determine the dimensions of competition between retail outlets. We find that, in addition to expected price and location competition, customer loyalty is central in the opinion of retailers. Firms also did not see the illicit market as their primary competition, instead identifying nearby legal retailers as their main competitors. Restrictions on advertising loomed large in the minds of retailers as a policy‐based impediment to their success. These results are further supported by visual inspection of the exterior of all stores in one of the urban centres.
Open Access
Can U.S. strategic petroleum reserves calm a tight market exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict?
(Elsevier BV, 2023-10) Noha Razek; Valentina Galvani; Surya Rajan; Brian McQuinn
Recent changes in global petroleum markets have driven the debate regarding the use of strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) as a price management tool during periods marked by extreme price volatility. We examine the price management role of the U.S. SPR under typical market conditions and in extreme emergencies. Furthermore, we discuss the White House's hypotheses that (a) boosted Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) production and releases from the U.S. SPR result in a negative pressure on U.S. gasoline inflation, and (b) crude oil releases from the U.S. SPR helps balance the global oil market. The threshold cointegration results indicate that U.S. SPR releases impact neither OPEC production nor imported input prices. We apply a hybrid open-economy Phillips curve to model gasoline inflation, accounting for backward- and forward-looking price settings, domestic and global slackness, and energy security. We distinguish between normal-, super-, and hyper-backwardation and -contango oil markets using threshold cointegration and regression techniques. Our results demonstrate that SPR releases and OPEC output increases generally decrease inflation, with a crucial exception being the hyper-backwardation market, as seen in 2021–2022. This period was characterized by severely constrained global supply buffers, including OPEC's spare capacity, exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict. For this period, we conclude that (1) the impact of OPEC production changes on gasoline inflation would be negligible, (2) excess domestic demand relative to domestic supply raises concerns about domestic energy security, and (3) the unprecedentedly large SPR drawdowns are likely to have caused the market to panic and contributed to gasoline price increases, contrary to arguments suggesting that the 2022 releases eased domestic gasoline prices. We conclude that the SPR is an ineffective price control mechanism during crises and may not have the strategic value previously thought in an extremely tight oil market.

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